Elections in Nigeria has never been so heated like now especially that the electorates are getting more exposed to the true essence of a democratically elected leader and the dividends to be enjoyed. From the national to the state to that of the local.
Ogun out of other states has its peculiarities, a state where political election is very unpredictable especially an historical foundation that has not given room for a present administration handing over to her begotten administration. Money was not really a determinant factor until the likes of Buruji Kashamu, Ibikunle Amosun and Daniel signalled their intentions.
Without much ado, the game of politics has started and the heat is boiling; gladiators are beginning to thrown in their hats, jesters who are only for notice me and negotiating motives are not left out. Fundamentally, the first two years of an administration only gives room for performance while the other two gives room for politics and assessment.
In the recent time the only serious parties contending is the All Progressive Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party. The APC for now remains at the top with skeletal internal brouhaha while that of the PDP cut across all ward to the National level over supremacy battle and the directorship of the centre, from a litigation to another exempting not Ogun State chapter.
The performance of the incumbent no doubt will go a long way to boost the electoral victory at the polls but its quite unfortunate that even with that, the historical foundation of the gateway state declines a revolving administration. The incumbent has successfully laid a foundation of infrastructural renewal across the state though leaving some local government added to its success recorded in other sector especially that of increments in the monthly internal generated revenue; the creation of the Local Development Council Area also has its significant role in essuring victory is ascertained for the party.
In the party called APC has two major camp, the Ajiri’s Camp and the Boudillion Camp. Incontestably, the Boudillion has presented a formidable gladiator whose fame has cut across the twenty local government and thirty seven LCDA, his profile in governance intimidates so also his political prowess. Like a wild fire, he occupies the social media and the grassroot but till date many analyst questions his origin linked with the Yewa-Awori people. Rebuffing their claims, Senator Olamilekan Adeola FCA, via his various lieutenants had issued statement and videos to convince the electorates about his true identity.
The chances he hold getting the party’s ticket might not be an easy ride. The grip of the party executives lies in the hand of the incumbent Senator Ibikunle Amosun FCA CON, he enjoys the backing of the majority even though grapevine information has it that, some of the excos are only simile to a bat in character annoyed over their incapacity to function as it should be. Except for a negotiation between the Lion of Boudillion Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and President Mohammed Buhari at the national level for a second term support for the President, Yayi has foundly called might have to go back to his business base in Lagos West or pitch his tenth in another party.
The disposition of Aremo Olusegun Osoba to the ambition of Yayi might not be really cemented as been postulated in the public domain. The Yayi Movement called the De’Democrats is one issue still finding difficulty to stomach with Osoba and his disciples. At a time was a meeting where he vehemently announced the seizure of the movement because his people were threatened. Aside that, will Osoba be able to singlehandedly promote Yayi for the ticketship considering what led to his journey to the Social Democratic party? Only time will decide as some Osoba boys too eyes the number one seat in Ogun
Another peril that might be on the path of Yayi is a lost of support from the incumbent whom most of his lieutenant have seen no good thing being done by him. The castigations on the present administration might spell a doom in realizing his ambition as the incumbent has never denied not supporting him for reasons best known to him but political gladiators are mostly unpredictable at the round table, “no permanent friend nor enemy”.
From the angle of Ajiri’s camp comes loads of governorship hopefuls. For a fact, only the Speaker of the house of assembly has the political muscle and wherewithal to fight the course from the Ajiri Camp; Apology to other aspirants. Who among the aspirants can sponsor a multimillionaire campaign, empowerment without the Ibikunle Amosun’s financial backup? I doubt if their is except for Surajudeen Ishola Adekunbi, whose two terms being the Speaker of the Assembly has rightly empowered him in connection to political allies across the length and breadth of the country and that of the other nations.
In an angle some analyst have blamed the incumbent of not empowering most of his lieutenant to be financially independent thereby subjecting most of them to be ridiculled in areas where financial battle comes to place, that’s just by the way.
Suraj Adekunbi a young man apart from his political experience being the Speaker of the Assembly who was able to manage a coup-dé-tact against him in his first term and still managing the speakership position presently has the financial muscle just like that of Yayi. His political sagacity and experience cut across board with almost every quarterly training and development programs he undergoes both in Nigeria and overseas on matters of Governance and Leadership in preparation for the task ahead. His political strength though is yet to be across board, but he is presently having a grip in his Yewa Axis, banking on Ibikunle Amosun for the Central axis and making moves on planting himself in the Eastern Senatorial District of the State which no doubt will require heavy spending especially because of the political heavy weight spenders, Buruji Kashamu and Ladi Adebutu .
For him to get the party ticket solely relies on the strength and dictates of the incumbent, Senator Amosun whose grip on the party at present is not contestable. Unfortunately the decision and workings of the progressive doesn’t lie on who owns this or that rather it is usually settled by the top hierarchy of the party, that of Senator Amosun still remains very fresh in the memory of all political statisticians. How the Egba Born Governor will convince the national leadership will be a major hurdle to cross.
As said above the misery in Ogun Political Statistics is beyond what pen and paper can define, party intricacies, gladiators activities and electorates decisions are the essential factors that determines the failure or victory of any aspirant cum candidate. It is however worthy to note that no aspirant can be wash off. As alluded above even the least expected can come from the rear to take over, 2019 is still months away.